283: Navigating the 2025 Job Market: White-Collar Recession, DEI Challenges & Career Strategies

Are you ready to tackle the evolving job market of 2025? With economic uncertainty, political shifts, and corporate restructuring, mid-career professionals face unique challenges—especially as the "white-collar recession" unfolds. In this episode, we dive deep into the latest job market trends, the future of DEI initiatives, and essential strategies to help you stay competitive.

Key Topics Covered:
✔️ What the "white-collar recession" means for mid-career professionals
✔️ How economic and political changes are reshaping job security
✔️ The decline of DEI initiatives—why it matters and what it means for workplace culture
✔️ The power of Employee Resource Groups (ERGs) in networking and career growth
✔️ Mastering job market positioning to stand out to employers
✔️ Effective strategies for networking, interviewing, and career resilience

Listen now and take control of your career in 2025! Don’t forget to join our growing community of mid-career professionals committed to success.

#JobMarket2025 #CareerGrowth #WhiteCollarRecession #Networking #DEI #MidCareerSuccess

Chapters

• 0:00 Navigating the Job Market Amid Change
• 14:45 Navigating Career Challenges Amid Uncertainty
• 32:39 Building Mid-Career Success With John Nerrell

Transcript

John Neral: 0:00

Hey there, this episode has been a little challenging for me to plan and to record Now. Admittedly, the easier route would have been for me to just do another episode about how you should be optimizing your LinkedIn at the beginning of the year, and that's certainly important, but it's really not what's on everyone's minds right now. But it's really not what's on everyone's minds right now, given the new presidential administration that took office a few weeks ago. We know there have been a lot of changes and some people are in favor of it and others are not, and I want to be clear that this episode is not about me going on some type of political rant, because this podcast is politically agnostic. I know there are people from both sides of the aisle who listen, and I am grateful for you being here, but there are some things in this episode that I will share with you, and I invite you to stick around to hear how all of this relates to the current job market and how you can be navigating it this week. It is time you and I take an objective and realistic look at the current state of the job market, discuss what is being called as the white-collar recession, the impact on the dismantling of DEI and explore how you can position yourself more strategically within this job market, to your benefit and success. There are undoubtedly many moving parts and in this episode, my goal is to provide you with the most valuable and relevant tips to help you build your mid-career GPS right now. So let's get started.

John Neral: 1:58

Hello, my friends, this is the Mid-Career GPS Podcast and I'm your host, John Neral. I help mid-career professionals like you find a job they love, or love the job they have, using my proven four-step formula. Before I dive into this week's episode, I understand that many of you would love to have a career coach help you make your next move, but may not have the financial resources to hire one privately. In this job market, as companies continue to cut back on employee resource groups and professional development, you taking the opportunity to invest in your career growth is vital to your success. That's why I am announcing a new mid-career community for people like you, whether you're looking to find the job you love or level up on your leadership. This monthly membership is designed to help you find that job you will fall in love with. This community will be launching soon, in the next few weeks, and if you want to be the first to hear about updates and information regarding its launch, including how to get a special founder's rate. You wanna get on the wait list, so the easiest thing to do is go to my website at https://johnneral. com. Right there on the homepage. As you scroll down, you will see a button to get on the wait list. That gets you into my email community and a special list for those interested in being part of this mid-career GPS community, and I look forward to launching this in the upcoming weeks and having you be a part of it so together we can help you figure out whatever is going to be next for you and your career your career.

John Neral: 3:44

Okay, we got a lot to cover this week and, as I shared in the introduction, I do my best to keep this podcast politically agnostic, but, given the current Trump administration, what we know is that over these last three weeks between Doge and what Elon Musk is doing under President Trump's direction or guidance, however, you want to see that a lot's happening, and if you have not had an opportunity to read Project 2025, I invite you to read it. I invite you to look and search for comparisons between what it says in the document and what's already been enacted, but in all respect, this should not be a surprise. Okay, just to get this out of the way, if you are new to me or you haven't been following me for a while, I tend to lean left, but I tend to lean left middle. Okay. So I just share that with you so you understand where I come from, and my job in this episode for you is to help dissect some of the things that are happening and where it may already have or could potentially impact your job and the job market this year. Right? So please know that my political views in this episode don't matter. They don't. As I say at the end of every episode, how we show up matters, and that is what we will continue to focus on.

John Neral: 5:20

My purpose in doing this podcast is to share information with you that everybody needs to help them build their mid-career GPS. Also, I want you to know that, as a coach, a colleague, a friend and a spouse, there are stories and circumstances that I have heard that I will not be specifically sharing in this episode, in part because there's confidentiality. But secondly, that is more experiential information and while I will share some generalities, the specifics are things you will certainly have gleaned and gained from your own network and your own circle of people with whom you are talking with on a regular basis. So my experiences are limited, based on my own circle, but I do want to offer they are broad, given the expansiveness of my network and the people with whom I've been talking with over the last few weeks.

John Neral: 6:22

Here's the other thing. If you are not looking at job reports, I want to invite you to do that. One of the easiest ways is just to go to Google and set up a Google Alert with a certain tag regarding job reports. But I want to offer you that this is an opportunity to look at two different types of data. The first is reporting data. Look at two different types of data. The first is reporting data. Okay, so that would be things like information that's coming out of the US Department of Labor. You can go to websites like Indeed, glassdoor, ziprecruiter, linkedin, flexjobs, forbes. There's plenty of places where you can go to get those job reports and hear their particular spin, interpretation or information about it.

John Neral: 7:10

I also want to invite you to check out reputable news outlets. So these are more legacy news outlets, even though we know some of them tend to lean one side or the other. But if you're like me, you are consuming that information from a variety of different resources. I will tell you, I have some friends of mine that are pretty shocked to hear that I sometimes listen to the other side and check in with that, but I feel that's important for me to do that because that helps me be more informed in terms of making the decisions and the reactions that I have. You have social media, certainly, whatever platform you are on, and you're consuming that content. More than likely, you are seeing content that as political in nature, be it on one side, the other or both. Okay, but again, I want to invite you to make sure that you are exploring multiple sources to gather your information regarding these job reports and take all of that information and use it to inform your thoughts and opinions about where you feel you need to be moving in this job market.

John Neral: 8:24

The other piece of data to examine here is experiential data, and that is data that you are seeing from either yourself in your current position or industry, or these are what your friends and colleagues are seeing and sharing with you as well, hearing stories from the front lines, from people who have been directly impacted or affected by the changes that have specifically been happening over the last three weeks gives you a different lens than what you are seeing or reading through the job reports and the various news outlets. Not everything is going to get reported and we know the social media algorithms tend to skew whatever you're clicking on. So I was sharing this with someone the other day and I was saying how, look, if you wanted golden retriever puppies in your feed, all you have to do is click on two or three of them and you now will be flooded with golden retriever puppies in your feed. Okay. If you want funny cat videos, the same thing kind of applies, okay. So understand that your social media is going to skew based on the algorithm, based on what you're clicking on. It should not be a surprise. Algorithm based on what you're clicking on Should not be a surprise. So now that you've taken a look at some job reports and we should be expecting job reports every single month and once those job reports are released, for a few days afterwards, you're going to get everybody kind of spinning what they are seeing and hearing.

John Neral: 10:02

But there was a term that came up in 2024 that is important for me to call out in this episode, and that term is white-collar recession. Now, by definition, a white-collar recession refers to a potentially economic situation where there is a significant decline in job opportunities for professional office-based workers like managers, analysts, corporate staff, while other sectors of the economy might remain relatively stable, leading to increased unemployment and difficulty finding new white-collar jobs among this demographic. Can you tell? I read that exactly, because I just wanted to make sure I got that all out there, okay? So white-collar recession is going to hit specifically those mid-level to senior-level corporate-type jobs where companies are going to look and they're gonna see if there's really a need for you on the org chart and how much it's costing the company to have you in that specific space. So if you are a typical white-collared professional, right your corporate job, corporate-type industry.

John Neral: 11:17

What I want you to know is that, from everything I've been reading and seeing, that this will impact specific jobs, mostly at middle management and administrative roles. Part of the reason here could be to looking at how they can cut costs, maybe due to increased automation, streamlining operations, for example, looking to see how many people need to be in a specific role, looking at resource allocations for that work to get done, as well as economic uncertainty. So we know typically when the economy isn't doing as well, we tend to see jobs become fewer. But now, with AI and increased automation, companies are certainly taking a look to say hey, do we need four people in this role? Can we get by with just one? Now, when we contrast what's happening with white-collar jobs and compare that with blue-collar ones, what we've typically seen is that the blue-collar sector like manufacturing, construction, hospitality in some areas of hospitality, they may continue to see demand for labor, and so what happens is is we may see quote unquote blue-collar jobs rise but white-collar jobs decline, and that may look like the job market is holding steady or even increasing in some way.

John Neral: 12:46

But if you're not finding the type of job that best suits your skill set and background, that's where you need to be paying attention. So thinking about where advanced technology like AI may be coming into play, or where companies may be looking to cut costs, or how people are coming to the office versus working remotely. If you have followed me for a while or if you are new, my message will never change on this, and that is the best way you can leverage yourself into your current or new position is by clearly and cleanly communicating why you are valuable, how you are going to help them solve a particular problem and paint the picture for where your work within that organization moves both them and you forward, so they see the value in bringing you on. If we take a look at the last three weeks, at what has been happening in the federal government, we don't have to look any further than DOGE, the Department of Governmental Efficiency, led by Elon Musk. We have seen the impact taken to USAID. We have heard conversations around the Department of Education. At the time of this recording there was plans to take a look at what's happening in the Pentagon. It's kind of hard for me to talk about specific things like this because who knows what's going to change by the time this episode drops. The wind could blow a different way. But again, if you've read Project 2025 and you see what's going on, you kind of see the pattern.

John Neral: 14:45

So the discussion here is on where can cutbacks be made, where can things be streamlined? But of course, the fear is if you're going to let certain number of people go, how did they get absorbed into the job market? Who are the people that will take some time off because they financially can do that and who are the people that are living paycheck to paycheck, that need to find a job immediately if they're losing their job. And look, you may have been a factor in this. I certainly have been a factor of this, in terms of companies going through restructuring and reorganization and trying to figure out where you're going to land. It's scary when you think, oh my gosh, how am I going to make my bills, how am I going to go and do this? Or we've got this big expense coming up, or I don't want to put another expense on my credit card, all of those things. So I'm okay with the conversation around how can we improve efficiency and cut costs where necessary? But we have to look at it very broadly, in my opinion. Okay, and so there's nothing wrong in the conversation quote unquote. But if it's going to directly impact you, then you have to figure out where do you land.

John Neral: 16:16

No surprise we've seen the tech industry take a big hit in 2024. And everything I'm seeing and reading and hearing is that that will most likely continue at least into half the year in 2025. So if you're in the tech sector and you're looking for a job, admittedly that may be a little more difficult for you. It doesn't mean it's impossible. As a coach, I work with my clients on helping them clean up their thoughts so we get them in the right mindset, but then also it is about helping strategically leverage them in the market. And please know that if you are thinking that a job search is not going to take you a lot of time right now, I have to tell you you're mistaken A lot. If I put that in air, quotes can mean some very, very different things, but by the time you start looking, networking, applying, interviewing easily you're looking at least two months On average. We're seeing five months. On the other end of the scale it's probably eight months. It all depends on the factors and things you can control as to how they impact your job search right now.

John Neral: 17:37

Now the other thing I want to bring up here is the impact we're seeing on DEI, diversity, equity and inclusion. I am someone who will always advocate that a diverse, equitable and inclusive workforce is to an organization's strength. Research has shown that diverse teams make better decisions and drive more revenue. You can look at McKinsey. You can look at the Harvard Business Review. According to research by Cloverpop, they say that diverse teams are 87% better at making decisions. Companies with strong DEI initiatives tend to attract top talent, including experienced mid-career professionals who desire, crave and want to work in inclusive environments, and we have seen time and time again the participation in DEI initiatives help professionals develop skills around things like conflict resolution, emotional intelligence, cross-culture communication that are not only valuable at any career stage, but they are global skills that ensure success across a variety of industries and experiences.

John Neral: 19:32

Dei is expansive and dismantling it will only DEI, whether it's important to you or not DEI, whether it's important to you or not. So one of the things we have seen over the last three weeks is companies doubling down on their DEI initiatives and others who are dismantling it. And so I will look at this and say that is a business decision. I will look at this and say that is a business decision, but that is the company's business decision for them to make. And so you then have to decide where you sit with this DEI conversation and how important it is for you as a gay man.

John Neral: 20:23

To me, diversity is important. We have to acknowledge the qualifications, the experiences, the backgrounds and looking at them and saying, yes, but this is where, if you follow social media and you're looking at things that people are putting out there, that it is skewing the conversation around DEI. That is absolutely not helpful. Or if you are someone directly impacted by DEI or you are an ally for one of these groups, is that think about how you show up. Think about how you're leading your teams. Think about the hiring decisions you're making right. Think about who's getting the seat at the table. Who are you bringing in for interviews? Are you truly looking at a diverse workforce or are you merely skewing to one side because of a personal or professional bias, bias? This DEI conversation is not done, and as much as there are people who are out there trying to dismantle it, what I have seen and will continue to see and believe in my heart is that this pendulum will continue to swing Somewhere. It's going to land in the middle, but this DEI conversation is not going away, and so if you're actively job-seeking, you should be prepared for how you might answer a question around DEI.

John Neral: 22:16

Now, one of the things that DEI has directly impacted and I can share with you I have had more than a couple handfuls of conversations with people who have reached out and have talked to me about what they are seeing their organization do. An ERG stands for an employee resource group. I have worked with employee resource groups. I have spoken to ERGs, I have been a part of ERGs, and so one of the things I love about employee resource groups is that they do provide networking opportunities that especially help mid-level, mid-career professionals expand their visibility and access leadership. Ergs are great opportunities to inform, educate, support, train, mentor, and what they also do is they provide a sense of belonging and support. Companies with strong DEI initiatives tend to have stronger or higher retention rates because employees feel seen and they feel valued and included, and ERGs provide safe spaces for employees to share challenges and experiences.

John Neral: 23:38

So, as a gay man, I have been part of ERGs, and knowing that there were other people like me within that organization, even if it was just for an opportunity to go grab a cup of coffee with, gave me somebody else in my network. I wouldn't have known otherwise. What it also tapped me into were allies who were the people that I felt comfortable with and I trusted, and when my husband and I got married, it was important for us to include those people whom we worked closely with at our wedding, that we wanted them to come be a part of it, because we appreciated and valued their allyship. That wouldn't have happened if those people weren't open and willing to engage and have those conversations with us that simply said, hey, you're valued, you're valued as a professional. So for many of you and I know many is a vague and obscure term, but I'm going to use it.

John Neral: 24:58

For many of you, if you are seeing your ERGs being dismantled, disbanded, not allowed to meet, it doesn't mean that you cannot find allyship and support within your organization. It may not be as easy, and if I were working in a corporate setting and I worked in a place where my ERGs were being dismantled, my heart would be breaking very, very heavily in that. But you have a network, you have a way to build that, and so, again, this is another opportunity for you to figure out where you want to show up. Where does that bring us? At the time of this episode drops on February 11th, we are three weeks and one day into this new administration and we will continue to move through this new administration, and so you have to know the playing field, you have to know what is happening within your organization, within your department, and you may need to, you may need to have some very intentional conversations with your colleagues, with your leadership, with your loved ones at home about where your career is at and where it's going and what is the best move for you. You may decide that if you decide to build your mid-career GPS to something else, that you will align yourself to companies and organizations that are a better fit for you. They're a better fit for you in terms of the organizational culture, the climate, the work and you may decide that pursuing an opportunity with that organization is the best move for you.

John Neral: 27:05

I also want to offer you to reshape the way you are interviewing right now. This is an opportunity for you to interview more strategically and if you want some help in prepping for your interview shameless plug here I do have a DIY course on my website. It is called A Simple Five-Step Strategy for Crushing your Next Interview. It is currently selling for $27. These are the same strategies and tips and tactics I share with my private one-on-one coaching clients. I invite you to go to my website, https://johnneral. com/courses, to check that out. But 27 bucks for some may be a lot of money, for others may not. It is packed with a ton of value. I invite you to check that out and implement those five strategies to shift the way you are interviewing and having these conversations right now.

John Neral: 27:59

Additionally, you got to leverage your network. If there is one thing that I know is absolutely going to happen as a result of all of this stuff is that people will build stronger relationships with their network and they will leverage them differently. So who are the people in your network, who are the people you need to be pulling into your network, who are the people you need to be talking to, and what does that mean? What does that mean for you and your career growth? And, lastly, this is an even bigger opportunity for you to show up and come from that place of value and service.

John Neral: 28:44

Focus on solving a particular problem, whether it is within your current organization or a new one, but make sure you are solving a problem that your organization needs help solving, that you've listened diagnostically and intuitively, you have done your research, you know this is a pain point and you know you are the person to be the one to show up and solve that particular problem. This is no different from what we've talked about before. Nothing is new here regarding that approach, but the landscape is certainly different, because it is fair to say that, as companies take longer to hire talent into positions. They're being more selective than ever. That's why the timeline for finding a quote-unquote white-collar job is taking a little bit longer, and if you want to find that job, then by all means. It is how you clearly and cleanly tell your story from a place of value and service that gets people more interested in who you are and what you do rather than finding you interesting.

John Neral: 29:58

I'm going to leave you with this final note Whatever side of the aisle you're on, whatever industry you work in or whatever you are doing right now, whether you are actively seeking a job or you are merely just trying to hold it together in this job market, I see you, I hear you, I feel for you. This has been one of the most stressful and difficult times in our job market and, admittedly, I believe it's all part of the plan. I mean emails that get sent out late at night, right, that disrupt your sleep pattern. Come on, we've worked for bosses that have done that. I have worked in organizations where we used to refer to Friday as who's getting fired Friday, and it was like clockwork. Hr would walk down, pick people off and be like well, they're gone.

John Neral: 31:06

This week, leadership shows up in a certain way and while you cannot control how leadership shows up, you can control how you react to it. So think about how you are managing the chaos and the stress that's going on amidst everything you have going on in your life and taking care of your loved ones and your families and your bills and everything else. If there's one big takeaway from this episode, I hope I gave you some things to consider. I hope I gave you some things to think about, but, more importantly, perhaps you feel a little validated. Perhaps you feel a little validated that, yeah, things aren't ideal right now.

John Neral: 31:51

This is not a job seeker's market, but there are still jobs out there to be had, and so I invite you to check out my free resources on my website, johnnerrellcom. I invite you to check out some of my low ticket offers that are there. Get on the wait list for my new mid-career community and, lastly, remember this you will build your mid-career GPS one mile or one step at a time, and how you show up matters. That's what you can control how you show up. So make it a great rest of your day and I'll be back with you next week. All right, take care of my friends, be well, hang in there.

John Neral: 32:39

Thank you for listening to the Mid-Career GPS Podcast. Make sure to follow on your favorite listening platform and, if you have a moment, I'd love to hear your comments on Apple Podcasts. Visit johnnerrellcom for more information about how I can help you build your mid-career GPS or how I can help you and your organization with your next workshop or public speaking event. Don't forget to connect with me on LinkedIn and follow me on social at John Nerrell Coaching. I look forward to being back with you next week. Until then, take care and remember how we show up matters. Thank you.